Trading Plan for 6/18

[pay]About that close (How the prior session ended)
Only 1-minute RSI had diverged positively at Thursday’s low testing 1102.00. But not 3-minute RSI, which wasn’t near oversold, so any bounce was likely to be shallow. That stopped me from buying it, but it didn’t stop the bounce from becoming a 10-point rally. Welcome to expiration.

Pattern points (And technical influences)
The deadline at Wednesday’s close had already determined neither buyers nor sellers had gained traction. And this being expiration week, that meant neither was likely to gain traction before Monday morning.

But volatility was still likely, and Thursday’s action didn’t disappoint. That was already obvious from overnight rally, and then from its early rejection by a steep and deep drop. Extending the last half-hour’s bounce into a squeeze was just more of the same.

One specific price at one specific moment is the most interesting part of Thursday’s volatile intraday reversals. The close. After all of that ranging in either direction, the day ended nearly unchanged. We’ll watch Friday morning’s first relevant data points (9:30, 9:45, 10:00, 10:15) for any commonality that might predict more of this attraction back to home.

Bottom line (My underlying premise)
Extended moves and premature reversals are not inappropriate for expiration, they’re not common enough to be required. This action is the exception, so by definition it defies posturing. But watch out for it, nonetheless. [/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.