Trading Plan for 6/20

Saturday’s Strategy Session starts at 9:30am ET… We’ll review the market’s bigger picture, how to apply Bias Signals, and then do instant analysis of any chart request… Its recording is linked here.[pay]

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)
Friday afternoon’s low filled the gap back to Thursday’s 1263.50 futures close. A lower low tested it down to 1261.50, and bounced. That can be bullish – IF their 1270.00 interim high is recovered.

It wasn’t.

Having missed the opportunity to close above 1270.00 Friday, gapping up above 1270.00 Monday would not be bullish. It could trigger a brief bounce. But any more bullish scenario must recover Friday’s 1275.00 intraday high through a relevant timing window.

Probing under 1260.00-1261.00 and recovering through a relevant timing window would be bullish. It could form a strong enough bottom to launch a rally back to Tuesday’s 1287.00 high and higher.

1260.00-1261.00 need not be tested at all, let alone at Monday’s open, not even in the absence of a rally. But if its support were broken, Monday morning could mimic Friday’s intraday downtrend and extend sharply lower under 1260.00-1261.00.

What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)
Wednesday’s expiration indicator lacked clarity that could have put into play a test of prior highs. So, buyers did not deserve a reward. The burden of proof was on sellers, who didn’t deliver, and the overnight bounce may have fulfilled that consequence. Triggering either bias signal Monday morning could extend sharply in that direction, beyond the bias target. [/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.