Trading Plan for 6/20

[pay]Pattern notes.
Thursday afternoon’s break to new session highs did several things, some of it potentially bullish, the rest not so much. One the bullish front: 1) the ESu 1349’75 high chipped away at Wednesday’s prior highs, and 2) that’s pretty much it.

The bearish factors were greater in number. S&Ps were all but obligated to probe higher highs after repeatedly chipping away at the morning’s 1343’00 highs, and now that magnetic attraction has been neutralized. The breakout attempt was reversed back under the prior highs. The reversal fell back under 1342’50, my preferred recovery signal.

No doubt both the rally and its reversal – and all of the past two sessions’ rallies and reversals, were influenced by the impending Quadruple Witch expiration. Friday’s price action might be influenced, too – just a bit. Thursday’s close did hold repeated tests of the recent decline’s 1337’50 target as support, which continues to be potentially bullish for forming a durable bottom, awaiting a bullish close.

Indicators and Internals.
Internal spreads were relatively narrow and evenly balanced. That’s fair, considering the session ended near its midpoint. But the internals did not reflect accumulation, which should be among the first signs that the prevailing trend might be reversing.
Friday’s opening setup.
The economic calendar is clear in deference to Friday’s Quadruple Witch expiration. Friday morning’s bias signal tends to persist well past the noon hour. This applies as much to a bias signal as to a no-bias signal. The most bullish scenario would be a drop under prior lows that originates after signaling no-bias, then a recovery into the 1340’s through the afternoon. That might be the only bullish scenario, as every other opening gambit either perpetuates the consolidation or begins another downleg.[/pay]