Trading Plan for 6/21

What expiration taketh… The day after expiration giveth back? Actually, expiration held positive territory. But the drop from its opening gap up was retraced Tuesday. And held. [pay]

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)
Monday afternoon’s ranging did not breakout in either direction. Tests held both the upper-end and lower-end.

Prior lows under 1271.00 were probed during the 3:10-3:20 window. The probe began after the window opened. Recovering the probe when the window shut would have sealed a bottom. But fresh lows were being probed at 3:20. This did not extend down, but it identified any potential bounce as being unable to gain traction.

Another bounce did hold 1273.50-1274.00 resistance once again peaked. Its recovery would be likely to extend higher. Likely objectives would include Friday’s 1277.25 pre-open high, and the gap back to Tuesday’s 1283.00 cash session close.

Failing to extend Monday’s bounce would all but require retesting last Thursday’s 1252.25 low – either to resume the decline, or to form a more durable bottom.

What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)
Tuesday’s econ calendar is light, but one post-open item stands out. Its timing jives well with reversing initial trending, whether it is trending up, or trending down to either bias signal. [/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.