Trading Plan for 6/22

[pay]About that close (How the prior session ended)
Monday afternoon’s slide was signaled at 1117.00. It extended down through 3:10-3:20 to confirm that sellers were in control. A 3-point bounce off of 1105.00 resolved in fresh lows at 1103.25. RSIs made higher lows to trigger an 8-1/2 point surge into the close.

Pattern points (And technical influences)
Actually, futures bounced 8-1/2 points off the low at 1111.75. Only 1109.00 was reached before the cash session close. This spread reflects optimism, which was a common theme among several other moments Monday that continually undermined the rally effort.

Clearly buyers gained no traction for their efforts Monday. But they did leave at least two breadcrumbs above the market that might still attract price higher: The cash session’s 1126.50 opening gap hasn’t been retested since dipping back into Friday’s range. And the 1129.50 overnight high is a “new Globex trend extreme” that will require intraday retest eventually.

1126.50‘s retest is only an attraction, but it isn’t required. And 1129.50‘s retest can be delayed since it was itself a retest of prior highs. But although buyers gained no traction for Sunday night’s efforts, sellers have yet to gain traction from closing under a prior low.

Bottom line (My underlying premise)
The inability of a rally to exploit Sunday night’s opening surge suggests that pessimism remains alive. And that maintains the potential for ranging back to Sunday night’s highs. Otherwise, immediately resuming the decline Tuesday would be credible. [/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.