Trading Plan for 6/24

If Sunday night’s surge had been at all complex… then its intraday retest would be required. And usually the same day, which would have avoided a lot of backing-and-filling Monday.

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
The passively bullish WedEX had no effect Monday morning. Did it even have an effect Friday afternoon? Post-open action only trended down, chipping away at 1951.00 support. Not until very late did Monday afternoon reject the support tests.

Good choice. Another chip at support after the bias environment’s exit would have surely probed lower. There isn’t much room with “lower prior highs” sitting at 1948.75-1949.50 just below. Its test could have attracted buyers to drive price back up. Even after bouncing into Monday’s close, failing to recover from probing under Monday’s low to test lower prior highs could trigger a drop that extends down into the weekend.

But we’re not expecting such a detour. It would duplicate the recent resolution to a Friday fresh trend high close. A setup that repeats consecutively — like the recent two Fridays fresh trend high closes — tend not to resolve similarly. And the last one detoured, so this one should not.

Sellers gained no traction Monday, so any weakness shallower than gapping down would likely recover. Just trending up would be credible for probing fresh highs. Although it doesn’t require a retest, Sunday night’s 1959.75 Globex high seems so lonely up there, and wasn’t rejected intraday.

[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
Friday’s fresh trend high close still requires there to be one more fresh trend high close. Having closed flat Monday, closing higher Tuesday would not confirm Friday’s breakout. Meanwhile, Monday’s late afternoon fresh high started just late and stopped just short of qualifying for a hold-long — but it was as close as they come.[/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.