Trading Plan for 6/25

Despite Friday’s bounce… it remains to be seen whether Thursday’s relentless sell-off was nevertheless sponsored only by weak hands. Friday’s bounce was belabored, productive only during the least liquid period, and ultimately held a test of resistance.

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
Did the morning’s headline barrage upset out timing windows? Two Fridays earlier, a Presidential press conference’s delay interfered with the 10:15 bias timing window. It did not prevent the expected bullish resolution, retracing all of the prior day’s drop.

Price will go where it needs to go. But without being sponsored by strong hands, that destination is vulnerable to failure. In fact, all of that prior weak-handed rally was itself retraced immediately the following Monday. This bounce could still extend higher, first.

Friday’s bounce recovered to test Thursday afternoon’s 1329.00 bias-down target. It was probed momentarily by nearly 3 points. But the cash session close equated to 1329.00. A post-close dive that touched 1325.00 was otherwise irrelevant.

A retest of last week’s 1357.00 high would be optimal before a durable downleg can begin. If sellers aren’t probing under a prior low at Monday’s open, then Friday’s bounce is probably already extending higher.

[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
Saturday Strategy Session starts at 9:30am ET. Click here to enter, or find its link in the blog’s sidebar. See you there?[/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.