Trading Plan for 6/25

If the WedEx fulfilled expiration’s bearish bias… then can another bearish bias still be influential? Yes, especially since Monday afternoon’s bounce already retraced 61.8% of the drop from Friday’s close. But bouncing so meaningfully from another bearish bias would be more likely to bottom.

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
Monday’s first 3-minute bar ranged 1567.50-1571.00. That’s where the market traded 3 minutes before the cash session close, the session’s last relevant timing window. The mainstream interpretation of closing back within the open’s range is the trend is pausing or even ending.

Actually, the setup is relevant in only two ways: First, extending the decline probably requires extending down aggressively without delay. Second, if Monday’s 1553.25 low is ever retested, then price should be either very far above it or very far below it within hours — probably by that session’s close.

Aggressively probing fresh lows Tuesday morning would likely extend down and not recover. But recovering from any probe of fresh lows would likely form a bottom. Ranging sideways is not likely.

[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
Several other factors discussed during the Market Wrap do suggest fresh lows will be probed. Only gapping up above Monday’s 1580.00 highs, and preferably also above Friday afternoon’s 1592.00 high, would get any benefit of the doubt for launching a multiple session rally.[/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.