Trading Plan for 6/26

[pay]Pattern notes.
Late sellers Thursday died a quick death, the same as the open’s sellers. For the open, it was a push down to the morning’s 891’00 bias-down signal that never gained traction for a break, and whose bounce recovered above its limit. Before the close, it was a probe under the 911’00 pullback limit that started too late to be credible, bouncing back to session highs.

Sellers had already lost traction, both with Tuesday’s recovery back above the prior session’s lows, and with Wednesday’s round-trip that bounced off of Tuesday’s highs. Buyers hadn’t gained any traction, but it was sellers who had most recently failed to trend.

Buyers were attracted by the overnight high at 908’50 and by the open gap back to last Friday’s 913’25 close, although neither required a retest (the overnight high was itself a retest of Wednesday’s high, and Friday’s gap was created by gapping down under prior lows). Regardless, each attraction is now neutralized.

Thursday afternoon’s bias-up environment never reached its 920’75 target. Its test remains outstanding since no prior low gave way as support.

920’75 will remain in-play Friday until it is met, unless the open gaps under Thursday afternoon’s 910’00 area lows. By the way, in case you’re wondering, that low printed during the session’s last half-hour, so gapping down under it wouldn’t signal a session-long decline. But only Wednesday’s “lower prior highs” around 905’00 would slow or prevent resuming the decline to new lows for the week.

Indicators and Internals.
All divergences Thursday were fulfilled, and the most recent trend extreme were accompanied by non-confirmations. Technicals left no unfinished business for Friday to resolve.

Friday’s opportunities.
There is room down to the 910’00 area before sellers start gaining traction, especially during the open’s first 15 minutes of volatility. There’s probably no reason to visit the area any later unless a deeper pullback (905’00?) is being attempted. Or unless the 920’75 target has been met already. Consumer Sentiment at 9:55 could provoke a turn in market direction if 920’75 was already met. Exceeding 920’75 early enough could immunize the balance of the session from selling pressure, perhaps even trigger a short-squeeze into the weekend. [/pay]