Trading Plan for 6/28

Signs of life… Meeting 1257.00 early Monday was likelier to hold as support. Sunday night is pretty early Monday. And its test launched a rally back up to prior highs. It’s still probably not enough for a durable bottom, but it’s a good start – so long as this bounce doesn’t get carried away. [pay]

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)
Monday morning’s rally was almost like a laboratory or different predictive behaviors. From repeatedly testing support, while RSIs improved, to recovering resistance through a relevant timing window.

The afternoon’s breakout attempt was another learning moment. It originated during a no-bias environment – neither bias signal had been triggered through 1:20. No trending attempt was likely, and any trending attempted was likely to be retraced.

In fact, the rally up to 1280.00 was retraced back to 1274.00 where the market was trading at 1:20.

Now the lab is closed. Monday’s dip back down to 1274.00 fulfilled the selling pressure, but it didn’t bounce. Buyers didn’t gain traction. Sellers didn’t gain traction, either, so no trending is indicated. Trending is possible, but no setup is in-play.

What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)
Tuesday’s econ calendar is unusually heavy. That could wreak havoc on a rudderless market. Especially if it is sitting too high, above unfinished business below (a retest of 1252.25‘s oversold RSIs). But avsell-off should be underway by mid-morning to avoid refueling too much for a bigger downleg. [/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.