Trading Plan for 6/29

[pay]About that close (How the prior session ended)
Monday afternoon’s bias-down environment never traded lower. Tests of 1071.00 held as support. But probes above 1076.00 didn’t gain traction either. So the session ended by reversing down to fresh afternoon lows at 1069.75.

Pattern points (And technical influences)
Friday’s last dip tested the afternoon’s 1071.00 support. So did Monday’s last dip. So did Monday second-to-last dip, as did Thursday’s low. And by much wider margins, so did every day in the interim.

That’s a lot of probing. That’s a lot of attempted sell-offs. So, where’s the recovery? That’s also a lot of chipping away at support. So, where’s the decline?

Sellers already lost traction when Friday’s probe of lower lows didn’t close lower. The burden of proof is on buyers. But Friday afternoon’s recovery back above the morning’s highs didn’t hold, so buyers failed to exploit the opportunity.

If a decline isn’t obvious at Tuesday’s open, then sellers probably want to trap more longs. And if a decline isn’t obvious at Tuesday’s open, then 1080.00 is probably being attacked or probed as resistance. Monday’s session was an inside day, so any initial trending would be vulnerable to being false and unsustainable.

Bottom line (My underlying premise)
Be sure to check my Econ Calendar comments to be aware of the minefield coming – it’s very treacherous for a week without any FOMC news. The volatility would fit in well with the scenario of initially breaking falsely in one direction.[/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.