Trading Plan for 6/30

[pay]About that close (How the prior session ended)
The 3:10-3:20 timing window didn’t tip its hand until the final minute. A plunge tested May’s 1032.75 “Globex trend extreme” down to 1030.25. RSIs made higher lows to launch a brief 9-point surge that settled back down to 1032.75 after the Globex open

Pattern points (And technical influences)
Tuesday’s close was under the morning’s low, and the lowest of the decline from April’s high, and a new low for the year. So, sellers gained traction for their efforts. There’s no unfinished business below attracting price lower, so a corrective bounce is possible.

Markets will be closed Monday. Three-day holiday weekends resist trending, and they resist trending down. Neither is terribly rare, just less likely. Trending in place at Wednesday’s close is likely to persist into the weekend. Not trending by Wednesday’s close would be unlikely to trend before next week.

So, if the drop from last Monday’s high intends to extend into the weekend, then it has only limited time to bounce first.

If the market were going to squeeze in a bounce instead, then it should being Wednesday by gapping up above Tuesday afternoon’s 1044.00 highs. Just recovering 1041.00 would rob sellers of their traction. Otherwise, the trend is down, with sharply lower targets ahead.

Bottom line (My underlying premise)
The theme we’ve been discussing since last Monday may seem like it’s getting old – that more and more market participants are gradually realizing the trend has reversed down. But the drop wasn’t very pessimistic until Tuesday’s gap down. This seems more like the trend’s beginning than like its end.[/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.