Trading Plan for 6/4

[pay]About that close (How the prior session ended)
Thursday afternoon’s bounce recovered from 1091.00 to 1104.25. Along the way, the cash session’s close equated to 1101.50. And one hour following the cash session close, a dip is already testing 1101.50 as support. All of which is evidence that sentiment didn’t really change from the cash session’s 1101.50 opening print.

Pattern points (And technical influences)
Thursday’s session bordered on being “equilibrium.” Trending attempts are still likely Friday, and the first 2-3 attempts are likely to fail. The attempts are also likely to alternate in direction. Unless the open were overcome by a different setup, Friday morning should be very choppy.

Reacting positively to the Employment Situation report could probe new highs around 1110.00, but then become vulnerable to reversing back down into negative territory. Reacting negatively would be likely to recover, and then reverse into positive territory.

Oversold RSIs at Thursday’s 1090.75 low require its eventual retest. This unfinished business can be neutralized overnight, or in reaction to the Employment report. Either would allow time and room for a positive reaction to launch an opening rally. Not recovering quickly could be a problem.

Equilibrium could be replaced by a session-long decline setup. Since Thursday’s closing action trended up, gapping open under Thursday afternoon’s 1094.25 low would put sellers in permanent control for the day.

Bottom line (My underlying premise)
This being a Friday, the morning’s bias signal tends to persist through the noon hour. Equilibrium can co-exist in this environment, but it’s not pretty – think volatility, on steroids. Alternatively, triggering a session-long decline on a Friday could undo the past two days’ corrective bounce.[/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.