Trading Plan for 6/4

If Monday morning’s high were recovered earlier, and not still being overlapped at the close… then it would have formed a “Pivot Reversal” setup. That would have been bullish. Being in a position to trigger the setup, without actually triggering it, can make the setup bearish instead.

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
Monday afternoon’s rally didn’t get aggressive until the position-squaring window opened at 3:37. Even that behavior wasn’t very aggressive. No 2-3 minute window of sizable consecutive up-bars, other than approaching a prior high. That’s my biggest concern about extending it any higher after Tuesday morning. Gapping up sharply enough might compensate for Monday’s restrained gain..

This stage of the pattern should behave aggressively. If not to the upside, then to the downside. And it should have been to the upside, No unfinished business below (no oversold RSIs at the low, and all lower objectives met), exiting the bias environment above a prior high, and positioned patiently at resistance.

Anyway, the afternoon’s rally met its minimum objective by retesting the 1638.00 pre-open high. Which held. There is room for noise around it between 1632.50/1633.50 – 1640.00/1642.00. Testing one end overnight and coming out the other end through Tuesday’s open would be likely to extend in that direction. But there isn’t otherwise an attractive setup or objective in-play.

[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
1638.00 was a critical objective last Wednesday, its test launching as large of a corrective bounce as possible. Its retest should be equally eventful, so neither an overnight probe above it or reaction down from it should be taken for granted.[/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.