Trading Plan for 7/1

[pay]Pattern notes.
Tuesday morning’s dive book-ended Monday morning’s surge. The balance of each session was similar in that neither extended. Monday’s pause ranged narrowly, so Tuesday morning’s attempt to resume the rally found buyers’ energy depleted. Tuesday afternoon’s bounce refueled its sellers, in case Wednesday’s market wants to resume the decline.

The bounce needed to hold 916’00 to avoid buyers gaining traction, and its test did stop the bounce. Damage done to the rally’s chart wasn’t mended by the close. Monday’s breakout attempt was rejected instead of confirmed, and the support of Friday’s lows was chipped away.

Wednesday might yet try to resume the rally. And it might yet succeed if Wednesday’s close were to exceed 924’00. The attempt is possible – almost anything is possible with volume starting to evaporate ahead of the three-day holiday weekend. But a recovery above Monday’s under-belly, the 920’00-922’00 “higher prior lows” isn’t likely at all.

Indicators and Internals.
Technicals never reflected much selling or buying pressure either off of Tuesday’s lows. So, it was difficult for any trending to begin. But it does help to identify that the afternoon’s gains were a reaction, not accumulative.

Wednesday’s opportunities.
The holiday-shortened week does skew some of the timing, so new lows for the week aren’t as assured as they would be in this pattern at almost any other time. But the timing of Tuesday afternoon’s also reveals it to be only  a bounce, and not accumulation or the start of a new rally leg. A gap up above 918’00 would repeat Tuesday afternoon’s flat-to-higher ranging. A break under 911’50-913’00 would be likely to extend down sharply intraday. Thursday econ calendar is a rare line-up of quantity and gravity, so I’m curious to see whether Wednesday afternoon’s price action ahead of its barrage becomes paralyzed with anxiousness. [/pay]