Trading Plan for 7/12

The post-close Market Wrap walks… through the current market situation comprehensively, and as concisely as possible given the pivotal point where it currently rests. Its recording is linked from the blog’s sidebar, but I’ll cover the central points below.

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
Wednesday’s session offered more evidence that sellers aren’t gaining traction for their effort. It also offered more evidence that buyers weren’t yet exploiting that.

Tuesday’s close under 1341.00-1342.00 prior lows had signaled momentum reversing down. Without a second consecutive lower close Wednesday, it was not confirmed… Tuesday’s 3:10-3:20 setup had identified a momentum low that forced a lower low to recover. Wednesday’s lower-lower low recovered, too… Wednesday’s low fulfilled the minimum 1327.00-1328.00 target put into play by closing Tuesday under 1346.00. The steep reaction up to 1339.50 confirms the pattern is influencing price action.

Wait, there’s more…

1341.25 became “unfinished business above” upon exiting Wednesday morning’s bias environment. Its attraction could help to resume Wednesday afternoon’s recovery attempt… Oh, yeah — volume stinks.

[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
All of which suggests that sellers are not strong hands. And all of which only suggests that buyers are patient. They certainly haven’t yet made their move. Until they do, there is potential for retesting Wednesday’s low to 1326.50 or 1322.00. But any lower through a relevant timing window could steepen the decline slope, instead of ending it.[/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.