Trading Plan for 7/18

Don’t forget: Saturday’s Strategy Session… It starts at 9:30am ET, and its link can be found in the blog’s sidebar. We’ll do a brief market overview, discuss “Timing Windows,” and then open up the floor to stock requests from subscribers. See you there. [pay]

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)
Friday morning’s bias tends to persist through the noon hour. Expiration sessions tend to be influenced by that bias through the afternoon. But that doesn’t prevent a lot of price movement in a wide range.

Friday morning’s no-bias triggered after testing the 1312.00 bias-up signal up to 1314.00, putting into play a test of the 1303.00 bias-down signal. The target was quickly met by a steep drop. But all that momentum behind the drop did not overcome the no-bias inhibition.

Similarly, the no-bias inhibition did not prevent bouncing back up to 1312.00. It just prevented breaking above 1312.00. The morning’s bias environment had been exited already back at unchanged, or near enough to it, that expiration was now doubly inhibited from trending.

The afternoon’s no-bias environment didn’t change things. Volatility remained alive, as the 1312.00 bias-up signal’s test reacted down to the new 1304.00 bias-down signal. And trending remained dead, as 1304.00‘s test launched a bounce. Back up to 1312.00 and to 1314.00.

Why would I spend so much time in this Trading Plan discussing Friday’s price action? Because expiration’s characteristics tend to be duplicated through Monday morning. If ranging and intraday volatility aren’t obvious early, then either trending or flat-lining would be likely.

What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)
Friday’s Market Wrap was recorded, click here to review it.[/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.