Trading Plan for 7/3

Monday was essentially an… “inside day.” As such, there is not much to be learned from it. In fact, it reveals nothing that was not already known. One opportunity for Tuesday can be defined, but it was not triggered…

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
Like Friday’s closing price action, Monday’s cash session also trended up to 1357.00-1359.75. And no higher. Like Friday, buyers expended all available buying pressure without gaining any traction for the effort.

Normally, like Friday, the pattern is more vulnerable to retracing all of its last half-hour surge from 1354.25. Gapping down under the bias environment’s 1353.25 low would trigger a session-long decline. And since Monday morning tested the 1350.00 origin of Friday’s last-minute surge without it being required — chipping away at its support — a downleg could test 1336.50 or 1327.50.

Not likely. Possible with the right open, but not likely.

Meanwhile, Tuesday’s low-volume environment could enable Monday afternoon’s rally to extend higher. It enabled Monday’s recovery from 1350.00. Sunday night’s 1362.25 high could be retested by the same sponsorship.

[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
No new objective was put into play by Monday’s price action. This makes Tuesday’s abbreviated session unlikely to trend if it is not trending at the open. It remains vulnerable to reacting to news, but even such a reaction would be vulnerable to reversing abruptly. [/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.