Trading Plan for 7/7

If Thursday’s session weren’t abbreviated… then would the 10-point rally have been much higher? Or, would there have been more time to reverse the early rally? Neither. The session, and the week, ended right where it wanted to.

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
Thursday’s reaction to its pre-open economic events essentially fulfilled the 1974.00 bias-up target. That held through the bias environment’s normal lapsing at 11:30, and then extended higher to 1978.00.

Despite this being the week’s end, it is not a Friday, so the new trend high close does not require another. But trends don’t peak into holidays anyway, so at least  a probe of higher highs remains likely — not simply to pierce or print a fresh high, but to actually trend with complexity above Thursday’s high.

Dipping immediately Monday is often the resolution to trending aggressively into the weekend. That resolution tends to persist for several sessions following an abbreviated session, filling the gap back down to Wednesday’s 1967.75 cash session close or lower to 1958.50, before returning to the trend extreme. Extending higher without delay would target at least 1982.00, and potentially 2003.50.

[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
Sell in May and go away only sounds more foolish as each day passes. But there is a reason behind the rhyme, which is the summer’s shrinking volume and participation. Coming out of the Independence Day holiday isn’t much more liquid than going in, so beware getting caught on the wrong side of a sudden swing.[/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.