Trading Plan for 7/8

If Friday’s last-minute rally were restrained… then it would have left pent-up buying pressure outstanding to justify holding long through the weekend. Does already expending that buying pressure mean the rally can’t extend anyway?

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
Closing Friday above the 1621.50 morning and 1624.50 noon hour highs means that buyers gained traction. Gapping up is not the only way to extend the rally, and the alternative to immediately trending up is not to trend down. An immediate pullback can still be recovered to extend Friday’s rally.

That doesn’t mean the extended rally will get very far, or for very long. The pre-open 1630.75 “new Globex trend extreme” can be rejected easily through 10:15 bias timing window, especially when the prior session’s open displayed that much elasticity. And it’s not much higher — 1625.00-1626.00 at Friday’s cash session close, and 1628.50-1629.00 at the futures close.

Meanwhile, Friday’s late buyers were not strong hands. A hold-long setup would have been considered by closing just above 1621.25, preferably at 1623.00-1624.00. But no buying pressure was left pent-up as price ticked higher through close.

Unfinished business below also suggests the interim bounce is sponsored by weak hands. Friday’s 1600.00 and 1591.75 bias-down parameters were put into play by rejecting both 1614.50 and 1621.25 bias-up parameters through 10:15. Rejecting another early rally would only trap more longs. If not — if 1632.00-1633.50 were tested without being rejected — then a bigger rally would be underway.

[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
This being a holiday weekend, there is no Saturday Strategy Session. Please don’t hesitate to request a chart analysis as needed for any equities by posting to this post’s comments section in the blog.[/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.