Trading Plan for 8/11

If Friday’s rally means the downleg has ended… then Monday’s open should underscore the point.

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
Thursday night’s “new Globex trend extreme” was retraced so much that Friday’s cash session chart developed entirely in positive territory. But there was complexity to the overnight dip, so it must be retested intraday eventually.

Friday afternoon’s rally peaked at its 1928.00 target, which was the target of Tuesday afternoon’s buy signal that was derailed by the Russia-Ukraine headline. Its buy signal was 1923.25. Coincidentally, that’s where Friday’s futures settled.

Whether or not Friday’s buyers gained traction for their efforts is not predictive, since Friday afternoon participants are weak-handed. Whomever they are, meeting and holding a target (1928.00) does mean their buying pressure was fulfilled.

More informative to the bigger picture is that 1926.75 held as resistance through the cash session close. That is the noise range under 1931.75, whose recovery would signal a bigger bounce or recovery underway. Holding a test of its proxy suggests that a corrective bounce just ended.

If a corrective bounce did NOT just end — if Friday’s 38-point rally from the 1890.25 overnight low up to 1928.25 is the beginning of something bigger — then it should be underway already at Monday’s open. No more backing-and-filling is needed. Gapping up above 1931.75 would target at least 1951.00-1953.75, or higher.

[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
Don’t forget there is NOT a Strategy Session this weekend. The Chartroom should be available Sunday night for the Globex open.[/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.