Trading Plan for 8/13

If Sunday night’s extreme sentiment were not absorbed so entirely… then perhaps Monday afternoon would have probed into positive territory. At least sellers failed to regain control, but they haven’t given up, yet.

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
Monday’s afternoon price action wasn’t entirely range bound, as a dip to 1683.00 bounced back up to 1687.50. But that didn’t exactly qualify as trending. The session closed under the morning’s high, so buyers gained no traction. And the session traded exclusively under Friday’s cash session close, i.e. in negative territory.

None of which is bearish. Potentially, but not necessarily. More so, these elements reflect a degree of pessimism.

Those pessimists kept a rally from forming, but they weren’t very productive otherwise. The dip to 1683.00 failed to probe any lower which would have triggered bias-down. The morning’s 1688.25 high stopped pessimistically short of probing into positive territory, but sellers gained no traction for that effort.

[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
And a buy signal that triggered above 1685.00 was confirmed above 1686.75. It essentially held its pullback limit to trend back up into the close. Still failing to gain traction intraday, the rally attempt must extend higher overnight if it intends to bleed into Tuesday’s session. Not gapping up would be problematic to a recovery, with no bullish reason to revisit Monday’s 1679.50 opening gap down. Meanwhile, initially targeting 1696.00, there remains potential to probe new highs. [/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.