Trading Plan for 8/15

Sellers had all day to reject… the breakout above prior highs. Each intraday bounce had been shallower than the last, always returning to session lows.A late break lower was very productive, very quickly, but recovered into the close. Will buyers exploit it?

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
1406.00-1407.00 was met, and its buying pressure was satisfied. Tuesday’s gap up to 1406.75 was filled after an interim dip back under prior highs, neutralizing its attraction. The 1409.50 pre-open high’s “new Globex trend extreme” doesn’t require an immediate retest, but would likely be retested nevertheless up to 1412.00 — especially so long as 1397.50 were to hold as support.

Entering the final hour avoided triggering a bullish signal, and the 3:10-3:20 timing window probed under the bias environment’s 1402.25 low. The combination was not necessarily being bearish. But it was exploited by there being so long without follow-through to fulfilling a major target hours earlier. Fresh session lows extended down to 1397.00.

Tuesday afternoon’s break lower was so productive so quickly. Yet, it came too late for any confidence that it was not an isolated event. Too many other intraday opportunities had been ignored. The break’s 1397.50 objective was met, and the cash session close bounced sharply.

Closing under 1403.00-1404.00 essentially broke free from the near-term attraction back up to retesting the pre-open 1409.50 “new Globex trend extreme.” Closing just under 1403.00-1404.00 by only a narrow margin makes me suspicious that 1409.50 will be retested anyway, and probably up to 1412.00. Opening Wednesday under 1395.25 would suggest otherwise.

[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
This week’s busy econ calendar continues Wednesday. Initial trending would be vulnerable to reversal, especially post-open.[/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.