Trading Plan for 8/15

If things are going to get volatile at the rally’s target… then Friday’s expiration influence should should produce a wild session.

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
Thursday’s test of the 1951.00 bias-up signal held. Simultaneously, and not coincidentally, so did Thursday’s test of the 1951.00 target for the week-long corrective rally. It held, but it wasn’t rejected.

Its reaction down during the no-bias environment only touched its 1948.25 prior low. Exiting the bias environment without yet reversing down from a target has bullish consequences. The balance of the session triggered a buy signal above 1950.25 that only returned to 1951.00, then extending sharply higher through the futures close. Room for noise around 1951.00 up to 1954.75 was met at the Globex open.

Touching 1954.75 or touching 1951.00 pre-close, then closing above or below it, would have been predictive. But 1951.00 was still being tested at the close, and 1954.75 wasn’t touched until after the close. So, higher objectives are not signaled, but neither is a reversal down.

Meanwhile, the bullish WedEX is planning to influence Friday afternoon and Monday morning. That’s going to be difficult if Friday morning were to rally up to a higher resistance, without exceeding it into or out of the noon hour. Difficult, and possibly inverted. Trending down into the noon hour could have a similar effect.

[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
Inversion isn’t common. I’m giving it special focus here because the corrective rally’s 1951.00 target was met and held. But that, itself, is not a sell signal. And not reversing down Friday could instead head higher to 1968.00.[/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.