Trading Plan for 8/17

Tuesday’s session was not “ineffectual pessimism”… This means it can launch another rally Wednesday. But it also means that not extending higher without delay would keep the door open to lower targets below. [pay]

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)
Tuesday’s signals were interesting. At least, there resolutions were interesting. Their eventual resolutions:

Initially, the open’s “session-long decline” triggered under 1190.50 didn’t produce fresh lows during the session’s last hour. The morning’s 1191.50 bias-down signal was rejected by recovering it through 10:30. And the afternoon’s 1190.50 bias-down signal produced fresh session lows that were retraced entirely.

But the eventual resolutions were not inappropriate. The session-long decline may have prevented a recovery into positive territory, and Tuesday’s cash session closed at the signal’s 1190.50 trigger. The morning’s bias-down target was met briefly at the morning’s 1184.00 low. And the afternoon’s 1184.75 bias-down target’s test did produce fresh session lows.

Tuesday’s signals were all influential, and the session-long decline may still be. Price action has been weak since testing the bounce’s 1199.00 target Monday. Being a corrective bounce, there is no need to form a bigger top before reversing down. So, almost any further delay in beginning a downleg Wednesday would make the upleg likelier to resume.

What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)
If Wednesday isn’t already rallying above 1198.00 before the open, then Tuesday’s session-long decline should already be producing lower lows. And its force may compensate for the delay. Oversold RSIs at Tuesday’s 1177.50 low require a retest, and could attract price lower overnight if 1186.00 were broken as support.

https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/vfzvpsk
[/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.