Trading Plan for 8/21

Exiting the bias environment above… the noon hour’s high, instead of still testing it, would have laid the groundwork for a last hour surge. Extending higher into the final hour or through the 3:10-3:20 timing window would have confirmed, but the final hour was entered under both. And 3:10-3:20 did nothing. So, the last hour ranged narrowly.

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
While the resulting signal can be a very useful warning against further trending attempts, trending without a signal would have been acceptable. Instead, the narrow ranging persisted through the close.

The bullish Wednesday Expiration Indicator may have been influential Monday in marginalizing sellers at the open by recovering 1413.75. That didn’t prevent lower lows, it only prevented lower lows from gaining traction at the 1410.25 bias-down signal.

All of the morning’s dip was recovered back to the open’s 1415.00 high, but not into positive territory. A hold-long could not be considered since 1415.00 was still being tested at the close.

[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
Buyers have yet to be rewarded for absorbing sellers. That remains likely, and likely Tuesday, and likely to test 1420.00-1421.25. Monday’s close was too shallow to ensure any further upside, or to prevent a detour down. But if sellers don’t control Tuesday’s open, then fresh highs remain likely next. [/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.