Trading Plan for 8/25

[pay]About that close (How the prior session ended)
The last half-hour dip retraced an earlier attack on 1057.50. It was retraced back down to and through the afternoon’s 1049.75 low. The session’s most bullish element had been the no-bias environment’s dip and recovery from 1049.75. Its retracement neutralized that, while offering yet another bearish element.

Pattern points (And technical influences)
Tuesday’s other potentially bullish development was its late-morning probe above 1054.50. A recovery could have gained traction, except that it also probed the morning’s 1057.50 bias-down target. Suddenly, this higher level needed to maintain its recovery.

1057.50 did not maintain its recovery. Soon after, 1054.50‘s recovery was also rejected. The problem can still be cured by proxy. Gapping up at Wednesday’s open above 1054.50-1057.50 would target 1068.75 and potentially 1087.50.

Unfortunately, the last half-hour slide triggered a sell signal under 1053.00. Its close under 1051.00 confirmed that a retest of Tuesday’s 1044.00 low was underway, next targeting 1037.00-1038.00.

Bottom line (My underlying premise)
Fresh lows have already extended down to 1047.25. Bounces should meanwhile hold 1051.00 as resistance. Wednesday is a big news day, and it need not accelerate the decline’s pace. But not accelerating would be vulnerable to recovery. [/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.