Trading Plan for 8/25

If not for another Ukraine-Russia headline… then Friday morning would have probed new highs. The open’s high was being retested minutes earlier. The bias parameters had put into play an objective above Thursday’s high. Whether new highs would have stuck through the close, that’s a different question. And much more important.

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
Probing a new high Friday would have been very vulnerable to reversing back down through the close. We discussed that potential soon after Friday’s open, because it would have formed a very bearish pattern I call a “Pivot Reversal.”

Bearish, not simply for rejecting a fresh high. More important is that Friday’s open gapped down. Gapping down in an uptrend, and then rejecting an intraday recovery, can mark a durable high. Was that the market’s intent before the Ukraine-Russia headline derailed it?

1984.75 held repeated tests as support. On any other day, that would be considered bullish. On Fridays, that’s not necessarily strong-handed buyers absorbing sellers. Still, that could have produced new highs, and didn’t. Is the market’s intent to probe new highs when enough time remains to close back in negative territory?

“Unfinished business above” remains outstanding at 1993.25. A deep enough break at Monday’s open could get away from that attraction. Otherwise, fresh highs Monday should neutralize its attraction, where behavior will help to reveal the next trending leg.

[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
This weekend’s Saturday Strategy Session will cover the market’s bigger picture and then address any stock chart analysis requests. We may also review the new location on Marketfy. And we’ll wish Happy Anniversary to the 1987 market peak that preceded October’s “Black Monday.” [/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.