Trading Plan for 8/27

If Kerry had saved his remarks for after the close… then would Monday afternoon simply have “based,” instead of plunging? That might seem to be unknowable. But rallying again Tuesday would suggest as much.

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
Monday morning’s bias-up signal left outstanding its 1669.50 bias-up target. It is “unfinished business above” that requires being tested. Has something changed?

Just testing 1669.50 — just putting it into play by exiting a timing window above 1663.25 — would have advanced a pattern likely also to attack recent highs. That could still develop. But closing back under 1663.25 invalidates its intraday recovery.

Closing back under  Friday afternoon’s 1656.00-1659.00 range has robbed the rally of its traction. The corrective bounce from Thursday’s low has ended. Until something signals a new downleg underway, the bounce’s peak can be retested, including the 1669.50 unfinished business above. Gapping up Tuesday above 1659.00 would be an appropriate start.
[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
As for signaling a new downleg underway… Monday’s close was a couple of ticks and a couple of minutes short of triggering a “hold-short” setup. Extending the late decline anyway would require limited or no bounces before testing 1648.00.[/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.