Trading Plan for 8/30

It cuts both ways… Repeatedly failing probes above the range’s upper-end have found an interest companion, by continually holding probes under the range’s lower-end. And so the rally potential remains alive.

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
Repeatedly probing above 1411.00 without closing above it has been considered to be distribution. Relatively strong hands are using the bounces as opportunities to sell. It has been a relevant level through multiple opens and other windows. Recovering it at Wednesday’s open would have pointed up sharply, but its resistance again held.

Now comes 1408.00. It has been in the process of being tested as support at many more relevant timing window all week. Still being tested. Probed, but not yet recovered — at closes, opens, bias environment exits, etc. Actually, timely recoveries back above 1408.00 would have been considered accumulation, which this is not.

That may suffice for the purpose of temporarily probing back into last Thursday’s range at 1419.00. It could even break higher to 1428.00. Potential for a rally remains alive so long as 1408.00 continues holding tests as support.

[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
The 3-Day Weekend indicator did not trigger. At the very least, the setup’s inputs require probing some prior high or prior low. Wednesday did neither. The 3-Day Weekend indicator could still trigger late by proxy if Thursday’s open were to exceed a prior low or high like 1404.75-1411.00. Meanwhile, Wednesday’s close dropped back to within 1 tick of 1408.00 — still testing it at the close — leaving potential to rally.[/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.