Trading Plan for 9/11

By Monday afternoon, so many… consecutive timing windows had ranged narrowly, that trending was likely to begin by the close. It did, with a vengeance. But it already fulfilled its likely objective. Just a speedbump, or a bigger detour?

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
Monday’s final hour was entered under the bias environment’s 1434.00 low, and the 3:10-3:20 timing window extended down to confirm that sellers were going to be productive. The bias environment’s exit was still testing the noon hour’s 1434.75 low, but too many consecutive timing windows had ranged narrowly. Trending was likely to be attempted before the close.

The break was triggered under 1434.25 and its likely target was 1428.00. The target was met . Although 1-minute RSI diverged positively to avoid requiring the low’s retest, the drop is vulnerable to extending, which is often the resolution to trending that closes at its a target.

In fact, futures continued sliding to 1425.75. The next lower objective is 1423.00 and then 1419.00, so long as 1431.00 is not recovered. Recovering 1431.00 would indicate the drop had ended, and a new high close was in-play.

[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
A lower close Tuesday would necessarily be under 1428.00. That was a big target on the way up, and closing back under it would undermine the buying that had meanwhile developed above it. That should not happen —  not yet — so closing lower Tuesday would suggest that something very damaging to the chart is on its way. [/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.