Trading Plan for 9/11

If this is Thursday prior to quarterly expiration… then the ES futures front month rolls forward at the open from Sep to Dec. Prices quoted below are identified respectively. Bias parameters are basis Dec.

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
Wednesday afternoon’s 1997.50 bias-up target was attacked to within 5 ticks. That doesn’t neutralize its attraction. Several opportunities during the afternoon could have surged to neutralize the attraction. But it was left outstanding. Why?

Was it terrorism fears ahead of Thursday’s 9/11/2001 anniversary that inhibited extending higher? Was it constructive pessimism, keeping alive the attraction to help resume the rally Thursday? A little of both?

Buyers gained no traction through the afternoon timing windows, so gapping up is likely if the rally extends. And extending higher would be well-rewarded, probably to probe prior highs up to 2011.00-2013.50.

Not gapping up won’t be likely to extend the rally. And regardless of 1997.50‘s test being outstanding, not extending the rally Thursday would become more attracted to revisiting Wednesday’s range round 1984.00 and lower.

[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
The market shouldn’t be on defense at Thursday’s open if buyers are regaining control. A dip has room down to 1992.00 without jeopardizing the rally’s momentum. But the timing would make recovery from there difficult.[/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.