Trading Plan for 9/12

If anxiousness ahead of 9/11 inhibited rallying past Tuesday’s open… then was Wednesday afternoon’s rally produced by those weak-hands covering?

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
Monday’s confirmed daily trend change signal required at least one more higher close. Wednesday fulfilled it. There is no other requirement to the trend change signal. It may still be influential — the trend may extend higher indefinitely, or an immediate pullback may recover. But the minimum upside has been fulfilled.

Now, what about more upside? The next higher relevant level above Wednesday’s 1689.00 high (basis Sep, 1682.50 basis Dec) is 1693.00 (1686.50). Exiting a relevant timing window almost any higher would essentially target new highs at 1706.00 (1699.50) and higher.

There is meanwhile unfinished business below, from Tuesday’s 1676.75 (1670.25) low, down to Monday afternoon’s no-bias trending above 1667.75 (1661.25) and 1665.50 (1659.00). Dropping under 1684.50 (1678.00) would be a first step toward neutralizing their attractions. There is not yet any indication whether that would develop into a new downleg, or recover to potentially probe new highs.

[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
The ES futures front-moth rolls over at Thursday’s open from SEP to DEC. There is a 6-1/2 point discount. Levels are identified above, and already quoted as DEC in the Bias Parameters.[/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.