Trading Plan for 9/13

If not for Friday morning’s headline from Assad… then would the morning’s recovery have been blind-sided by something else? Not retracing it by the close suggests as much, but recovering overnight would suggest that only the knee-jerk reaction was to blame.

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
Thursday’s 1675.00 lows tested Tuesday’s 1676.00 “lower prior highs” as support. The first test is natural, and often suffices to resume the rally. A second test borders on being overkill, and often breaks lower to test prior lows. Since 1676.00 had been tested previously, Thursday’s retest borders on being overkill.

If 1676.00 lower prior highs are giving way, then Friday will immediately break under Tuesday’s 1670.25 prior lows. Oversold RSIs there must be retested, anyway. Their retest might try to launch a bounce, but breaking lower would next target the 1664.00 area, 1661.00 and 1656.00 lower prior highs.

Thursday’s close barely held 1675.50 to avoid triggering a hold-short setup. A last-minute surge to 1678.50 could enable Friday to range flat-to-higher. Similar to requiring immediate weakness for extending down Friday, recovering back above Thursday’s highs all but requires rallying overnight.

[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
It’s Friday the 13th, and you know what that means for the market… absolutely nothing. Fridays do have relevance for their afternoon volume dwindling. This Friday especially, with many participants leaving early for Yom Kippur worship that begins at sundown.[/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.