Trading Plan for 9/13
[pay]About that close (How the prior session ended)
Friday afternoon only firmed. “Bounce” and “rally” don’t apply. Nonetheless, the afternoon firmed to fresh session highs, recovering the noon hour’s dip. Friday’s last 60-90 minutes really only ranged narrowly around 1104.00. Thursday’s 1106.00 opening gap wasn’t filled, missed by a single tick.
Pattern points (And technical influences)
What Thursday’s drop taketh away, Friday’s close returneth. Almosteth. It was an inside day, and it essentially trended up. That means the next trending attempt beyond the range is unlikely to gain traction. A probe of higher highs would neutralize the attraction back to Thursday’s 1106.00 opening gap, its 1107.00 pre-open high, and perhaps also 1110.00.
An immediate attempt to trend down can gain traction temporarily by gapping under Friday afternoon’s ~1099.00 low. That would be a rare Friday-Monday sequence, and a gap down that holds the 1100.00 hour would likely reverse up to fresh highs.
Gapping down under Thursday’s 1095.75 low would be more serious. That dip already tested “lower prior highs” and its reaction filled the gap back to 1106.00 (close enough to more concerned with the gap down’s sponsorship). This is also a rare template, but serious if encountered.
I don’t consider it pessimistic to have missed filling Thursday’s opening gap by 1 tick, not excessively pessimistic. But not rejecting fresh highs by noon would suggest the rally is extending to eventually probe August’s 1122.00 highs. An early higher high that stumbles would likely continue reversing down.
Bottom line (My underlying premise)
Fresh highs remain the likely next objective for Monday morning. This rally is getting so dangerously close to August’s high, that the path lower almost requires gapping and spiking down sharply without delay… Next week’s econ calendar looks busy, but it is full of low-profile items and/or orderly timing, hampering its ability to disrupt price action.[/pay]
Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.