Trading Plan for 9/14

[pay]Pattern notes.
Both buyers and sellers accomplished something, and neither accomplished much. That may be acceptable for sellers. Upon entering Friday at new highs, their most reasonable hope is just to avoid a a runaway rally into the close. Almost any gain would have created a buffer to absorb selling Monday. That buffer wasn’t created, and a runaway rally was avoided. Sellers didn’t recapture any ground, but neither did buyers. Buyers had the advantage, so sellers won the day by default.

None of which matters if sellers don’t exploit their minor victory on Monday. So long as any strength is tempered or brief, then August’s highs are still being tested as resistance, and not broken. Friday’s highs don’t require a retest, although a retest wouldn’t be inappropriate. A credible downleg could start as easily from a failed new high as it could from a break under support.

A break higher could extend intraday, if it begins either by gapping up or by quickly recovering an opening dip. Any sustained gains would be odd after Friday failed to confirm Thursday’s breakout close. A temporary gain would not be inappropriate – maintaining it would be odd.

Indicators and Internals.
Simultaneous negative divergence in RSIs accompanied Friday’s last-minute highs. The pullback from there could be considered large only in relation to the narrow range it followed. But the divergence wasn’t invalidated, and it didn’t leave a sold base to launch a new rally leg.

Monday’s opportunities.
Friday’s close returned to the session’s opening levels. There is no predictability from a standing start. And no econ report is due Monday that might help to pinpoint a move’s timing. An early surge that also fails early would be very compelling for short-entry. And something might develop overnight. But there is currently no parameter.[/pay]