Trading Plan for 9/16

[pay]About that close (How the prior session ended)
Wednesday afternoon’s bias environment lapsed, and trending was free to resume. Its first attempt was down, which bottomed retesting its 1115.25 low when 1-minute RSI diverged positively. The second trending tested 1118.50 during the 3:10-3:20 timing window. Then it surged to 1121.50 and ranged sideways through the close.

Pattern points (And technical influences)
The 3:10-3:20 timing window all but signaled the next bounce’s purpose would be to refuel sellers. The window ranged around a relevant level (1118.00), first probing it, then rejecting it, and then trying to recover before the window closed. The last element undermined the first two, by “trying to recover” instead of clearly not recovering.

Since the last element “barely recovered”, it barely undermined the otherwise bearish setup. A bounce to refuel sellers may be underway already. It could extend higher overnight to either 1122.25 or to 1124.50, and attract price back to it Thursday for having probed above Wednesday’s high. An interim overnight dip to the 1118.00 area would be likely to launch the overnight high’s retest.

Regardless of whether Wednesday’s late bounce is retraced (or how deeply) before being retested, its ultimate rejection would initially target a retest of the 1110.00-1111.00 area lows. Extending the bounce into an upleg isn’t likely, but can happen anyway into this week’s expiration.

Bottom line (My underlying premise)
Trending during expiration is difficult to begin if not already underway 48 hours before expiration’s opening rotation. That was Wednesday morning. This is Quadruple Expiration, and gapping open sharply could have different plans. Thursday’s econ reports might make it appear those plans are playing out. [/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.