Trading Plan for 9/16

A funny thing happened on the way to… a bad day. Coordinated intervention triggered a surge to fresh highs. It helped more than the Euro. Exceeding 1276.00 through Wednesday’s open had put into play targets up to 1201.50. It was still being tested at Thursday’s close.[pay]

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)
1201.50 was also Thursday afternoon’s bias-up target. It was met just before the afternoon’s bias environment started lapsing at 2:30. The balance of the session ranged around it. In fact, the session’s final bars were still overlapping it. The cash session close was 1202.75.

In other words, 1201.50 held its test as resistance. A post-close spike up to new highs tested 1205.50, but that was too late to be relevant.

There is room for noise around 1201.50 to 1195.00-1205.25 without yet extending higher or rejecting it. Extending higher through the close would target 1224.00 and 1230.00. Breaking lower would target new lows for the week under 1130.00.

Thursday’s close trended up. So, a “session-long decline” setup would trigger by gapping open Friday under Thursday afternoon’s 1194.25 low. A session-long rally setup cannot trigger, but it may seem like it if the morning’s bias-up signal were triggered —  any trending underway at expiration’s open is very difficult to reverse intraday.

What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)
Friday is Quadruple Witch expiration. Don’t forget that my Expiration Indicator is expecting a downward bias into and out of the weekend — specifically, Friday afternoon and Monday morning. That’s going to be difficult if Friday’s open doesn’t absorb buying pressures, leaving it to Monday morning to make up for the delay with a vengeance. [/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.