Trading Plan for 9/17

Be prepared for an… early start to this weekend’s Saturday Strategy Session. We’ll begin 30 minutes early at 9:00am ET. And we’ll probably finish within 45 minutes. Be sure not to show-up late if you have stock analysis requests.

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
Friday morning’s opening surge was retraced entirely from its 1468.00 high back down to its 1455.50 opening print. The afternoon’s ultimate low touched the morning’s 1454.25 bias-up signal. That’s a big retracement.

But the morning’s post-open low was pierced by only 1-2 ticks. And negative territory was never attacked, let alone probed. The final hour was entered not by a fresh low, but by a bounce. That’s not strong-handed sellers. But that is a lot of selling pressure to have expended without gaining traction for the effort.

Overbought RSIs at the 1468.00 high require a retest. That’s not the only obstacle to a decline. A new trend high close on a Friday is almost historically impossible to serve as the trend extreme. But Monday’s high can. Not extending down immediately at Monday’s open will likely recover to retest 1468.00, whether by 1-3 ticks or by 3-5 points.

[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
Buyers gained no traction for their efforts Friday, either, since the close was below noon hour range. In fact, buyers were so weak that only a last-minute surge avoided the session closing back under Thursday’s high. Gapping up should be the only way to extend the trend Monday. Otherwise, a retest of 1468.00 would likely hold.[/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.