Trading Plan for 9/18

If money bias into expiration is most obvious by Wednesday’s close… then perhaps that’s what prevented Wednesday’s rally from extending. Thursday’s open must still confirm, but this cycle’s WedEX indicator is interesting nevertheless.

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
Wednesday afternoon’s 1994.00 bias-up signal was likely to define the bias environment’s upper-end. Not necessarily on FOMC days. But the level is still relevant, and closing above or below it still would have had significance. So, it’s interesting that 1994.00 defined the close.

It’s really interesting not to have signaled whether the uptrend’s sponsorship was influential through the close, or done, when that session included a test of prior highs. All prior highs — the 2001.75 high, and the 2002.75 “new Globex trend extreme. Only the room for noise above it to 2005.50 remained outstanding.

Testing 2005.50 from a close above 1994.00 would have been likelier to probe it than to hold it. But having tested the range’s 2001.75 high without closing above the trend’s own 1994.50 high does suggest the WedEX is passively bearish. Gapping up Thursday above Wednesday’s 2003.25 high would serve by proxy to form an actively bearish WedEX. Otherwise, recent lows may be revisited soon.

[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
All trending triggered by FOMC news is retraced eventually. Usually it’s about a week later. But Wednesday’s close at 1994.o0 robbed us of that setup, since that’s where the news was greeted. Perhaps we should be suspicious of the next trending attempt getting too far before returning to 1994.00.[/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.