Trading Plan for 9/19

Tuesday’s session was stuck in the… much, much like Monday, but a little more volatile. Pre-open action had already made the overnight lows likely to be probed. The morning’s bounce delayed that, and the noon hour’s ranging teased at it. But the session never delivered. Does the likelihood for fresh lows even exist?

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
Pre-open action had already made Tuesday likely to probe under the overnight lows. Did that likelihood have any purpose beyond preventing Tuesday from launching a rally? Or, was unfinished business left outstanding?

Like one sibling taunting the other by only pretending to jab with his finger, the effect can still be pretty annoying. Just ask my sister. A probe of fresh lows could still develop overnight and recover before the open. Any of Tuesday’s timing windows could could have formed the same pattern.

There is no requirement to probe a fresh low before rallying back to retest Friday’s 1468.00 high. But not probing fresh lows first would make 1468.00‘s test that much likely to reverse down quickly. That would still be possible if Wednesday’s open were to recover from testing the 1448.00 area, but at least there would be potential to extend higher. Meanwhile, quite a different world awaits under 1447.00 .

[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
Wednesday of expiration week offers the chance at triggering my Wed-Ex signal. Probing under Tuesday’s low or retesting Friday’s high should offer some predictive insight into whether price action will be biased into and out of the weekend.[/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.