Trading Plan for 9/19

If the market is satisfying targets as quickly as they’re produced… then that often means longer-term buyers are less involved. Thursday’s market did just that, creating a target in the morning and peaking at it in the afternoon.

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
Thursday morning’s 1999.00 bias-up signal put into play 2005.50. The market promptly triggered no-bias signal, and spent almost the entire afternoon ranging narrowly within a couple of points. Then, as if having forgotten a last-minute detail, the last 30-60 minutes rallied through the close to touch 2005.50.

Exit polling from Scotland is favoring the unsurprising “no” vote winning handily. S&Ps have extended higher to 2009.50. The upper-end of the range for noise above 2005.50 is 2009.25. And 1-minute RSI isn’t returning to overbought, so near-term buying pressure isn’t improving.

Gapping up to fresh trend highs at expiration’s open usually has two choices: Extend the trend or reverse it. Choppy, sideways action is very unlikely. So, the passively bearish WedEX would influence the entire session negatively if the morning declines.

Notice that buyers gained no traction at Thursday’s close. The bias environment’s exit and final hour’s entry were within the noon hour’s range. Yet price extended higher. Extending through the 2005.50 target would have put into play higher targets. Closing at 2005.50 did not. Yet price is trying to extend higher anyway.

[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
Accident waiting to happen? Not if Friday’s opening action inverts the otherwise bearish WedEX. Then the rally is entering blow-off mode. Absent that plot twist, the only twist is back down… Housekeeping notes: Thursday afternoon’s Market Wrap recording came in without delay, so I don’t know what has delayed the morning’s recording… Did you try your Marketfy login? Please let me know ASAP if you have any difficulty. I’ll be publishing to both sites into next week[/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.