Trading Plan for 9/20

Wed-Ex didn’t have an opportunity… to trigger. At the heart of Wednesday’s Expiration Indicator is a probe beyond the recent range. But Wednesday’s session barely touched the two prior ranges’ upper-ends. Overnight action through Thursday’s open could still inform the setup by proxy, which we’ll discuss then. Otherwise, Wed-Ex doesn’t offer any extra clues to bias into and/or out of the weekend.

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
Tuesday’s session was kept in a narrow range, as the attraction to fresh lows inhibited rally efforts. Wednesday’s session did try to rally. Twice. First overnight, and then intraday back up to the overnight highs. Tuesday not rallying is one thing, but Wednesday not extending an actual rally is another.

Could the market still be in the orbit of the 1448.00 area, and its gravitational pull is still inhibiting a rally?

The 1448.00 area remains capable of absorbing and rejecting selling pressing. Getting its test out of the way soon after Thursday’s open — if not already recovering from its test overnight — would still enable a rally back to Friday’s high. Alternatively, gapping up above Wednesday’s 1459.00 highs could break free from the gravitational pull below.

[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
Wednesday afternoon’s windows touched, pierced and probed 1458.25 without triggering its signal. Each of those failures alone was bearish. The afternoon was already unlikely to range narrowly, which left only one direction: down. A late sell-off to 1453.00 was just a little too productive too quickly for what was otherwise a compelling “hold-short” through the close setup triggered under 1455.50. But it gets a benefit of the doubt for extending down so long as 1455.50 isn’t recovered.[/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.