Trading Plan for 9/21

Thursday afternoon’s repeated tests… of 1452.00 resistance deserved a reward for chipping away at its resistance. Not of 2-3 ticks, but of 2-3 points. In fact, the subsequent peak was 1455.00. Buyers have been rewarded, and they failed to trigger a “hold-long” by closing AT 1454.00 instead of above it. New sponsorship for the recovery had better arrive immediately Friday, or else Thursday’s lows will demand a retest.

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
Attractions below the market at 1447.00-1448.25 had prevented a rally Tuesday and ruined a rally Wednesday. New attractions below the market at 1447.75 and 1443.75 may prevent or ruin a rally Friday, too. Or, a rally may be delayed until either is tested.

Regardless, a rally Friday does not require first testing either 1447.75 or 1443.75. Their attraction(s) below can be neutralized by exiting Friday’s open above 1454.50 which equated to Wednesday’s cash session close. Thursday had that opportunity, so the bullish scenario would not waste time extending above 1457.00, too.

There is plenty of upside if a rally were to  gain traction at Friday’s open. Last Friday’s 1486.00 high still requires a retest. But exiting Friday’s open still in the orbit of 1447.75 and 1443.75 would make their test(s) likely. And failing to hold their support could extend the decline through Monday morning.

[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
Friday’s expiration need not trend at all, even if its open were to gap. Limited volatility through the first hour would warn us of a flat session. I’m not anticipating that, and the alternative to that signal should be a very volatile session.[/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.