Notice: Function _load_textdomain_just_in_time was called incorrectly. Translation loading for the disable-gutenberg domain was triggered too early. This is usually an indicator for some code in the plugin or theme running too early. Translations should be loaded at the init action or later. Please see Debugging in WordPress for more information. (This message was added in version 6.7.0.) in /home4/jwl23/public_html/rd.johnlander.me/wp-includes/functions.php on line 6131
Trading Plan for 9/24 – If, Then… Market Timing

Trading Plan for 9/24

By Rod David | September 21, 2012 - 4:45 pm

Strong hands or not, Thursday… night’s rally expended all available buying pressure. Expiration can trend relentlessly in either direction, even contrary to the opening gap’s direction. Friday could have trended up relentlessly, had the open been a little less optimistic.

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
Thursday night’s rally turned Friday into a repeat of last Friday morning’s reversal. Each peaked early, and then trended down through the balance of the day. They weren’t entirely similar, and that’s why this Friday’s version may be bullish.

The difference is that despite trending down into the afternoon, last Friday’s open and close both surged. This Friday’s version was already trending down at the open, and it also trended down past the close.Last Friday’s downtrending was bookended by optimism. Selling pressure was relentless this time, and the pessimism is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective.

So, like last Friday’s opening surge, Thursday night’s rally created a lot of room to absorb a lot of selling pressure. And a lot of selling pressure was expended Friday. Friday’s cash session close held the 1453.25-1454.00 pullback limit which was created when the open barely held 1458.50. Opening Monday back above 1454.00 would be credible for extending higher intraday, probably back through Friday’s high.

Friday’s post-close action ticked down to 1450.50. Trading that low before the close would have put into play a retest of Thursday’s 1443.75 low. That may yet develop, if Monday’s open doesn’t immediately reject Friday’s post-close lower lows. Friday morning’s outstanding 1463.50 bias-up target can’t be relied upon to prevent a decline — it is “unfinished business,” but only by the thinnest qualifications, and on an expiration.

[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
Saturday’s Strategy Session begins normally this week at 9:30am ET. See you there! [/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.

Posted in Market Wrap, S&P