Trading Plan for 9/24

If Monday afternoon’s bounce had extended any higher… then it would have extended back above the morning’s low. That’s a lot of potential to leave on the table. There’s probably a good reason for that, unless Tuesday were to compensate for the delay.

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
The burden of proof is on both buyers and sellers. It is on buyers for failing to trigger the Monday afternoon’s 1696.00 bias-up signal despite touching it during the noon hour. It is on buyers for exiting the bias environment back under the noon hour’s low, despite having probed it up to 1698.25. And it is on buyers, for exiting the final hour under the bias environment’s high — if not also at or under the noon hour’s high.

Sellers did not exploit any of these weaknesses, despite the afternoon still being in negative territory. Similarly, that also puts a burden of proof on sellers. A burden of proof is on buyers for not exploiting the bearish WedEX lapsing after having been so productive. It is on sellers for not exploiting such a productive WedEX.

Monday’s cash session close equated to 1695.00, above the bias environment’s 1694.25 low. Futures extended down to 1692.25, too late for sellers to gain traction for their efforts. Trending either way Tuesday depends upon maintaining a gap in that direction.

[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
Oversold RSIs were left outstanding at Monday’s 1689.25 1689.50 low. A corrective bounce could be very productive before neutralizing the “unfinished business below” — especially if a “session-long rally” were signaled by gapping up above Monday afternoon’s high. Testing the oversold RSIs overnight and already recovering into Tuesday’s open would be bullish. Almost any other scenario would be likely to extend down intraday.[/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.