Trading Plan for 9/3
[pay]About that close (How the prior session ended)
1-minute RSI had almost diverged positively into the noon hour’s dive to 1082.00. It wasn’t much, but it was a lot for such an otherwise listless day. Buy signals started triggering above 1083.50, renewing momentum to the morning’s outstanding 1089.00 bias-up target. The cash session’s high touched it, before post-close firming probed it.
Pattern points (And technical influences)
Exceeding the 1089.00 target through the cash session close would have extended its pattern. (It wasn’t probed until after the close.) Thursday’s close may have been equilibrium. Gapping under afternoon’s 1084.50 prior low may be the only way to avoid 2-3 trending attempts in the morning, that aren’t not noise. The first 1-2 attempts would fail, the last would gain traction.
Gapping under afternoon’s 1084.50 prior low would trigger a session-long decline. Its minimum objective would be Wednesday afternoon’s 1075.00 low, with potential to 1052.00.
Sellers became marginalized Wednesday morning by failing then to retake control. It’s possible that buyers exploited this enough in the interim to attract sellers back. Fulfilling the 1092.00 1089.00 target left no unfinished business above to inhibit or rescue a negative reaction.
Rallying further into the weekend would have potential to probe multi-week highs at 1099.00, perhaps even 1105.00. Extending much higher at all Friday would be difficult, as participation thins out ahead of the three-day holiday weekend.
Bottom line (My underlying premise)
Sellers might be attracted by a surprisingly negative Employment Report – which is to say, an Employment Report that isn’t surprisingly positive like several recent items. Otherwise, the morning’s reaction could be the session’s only action. Friday morning bias signals tend to persist through into the afternoon. And a no-bias morning before a holiday weekend might as well be no-bias through the close.[/pay]
Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.