Trading Plan for 9/9

[pay]About that close (How the prior session ended)
The FOMC reaction’s recovery had fulfilled its 1101.00 target. A dip to its 1099.75 pullback limit had ended within its 2-3 minute allotted time frame. It recovered quickly enough, too, but further trending was unlikely with volume thinning. A drop faced the same challenge, but it was overcome to attack afternoon’s lows.

Pattern points (And technical influences)
Tuesday’s session-long decline didn’t damage the chart much. Wednesday’s recovery didn’t improve it. Tuesday’s intraday high was probed and held as resistance. The gap back to Friday’s 1103.25 close was essentially filled within 1-2 ticks.

Buyers expended a lot of energy. Overnight probes under Tuesday’s lows didn’t just fail to gain traction – they were rejected by recovering back above Tuesday’s highs. Failing to close above Tuesday’s highs means that buyers didn’t gain any traction for their efforts. And that was some effort.

Wednesday afternoon’s slowing volume limited the FOMC reaction’s recovery. Volume won’t slow Thursday – it will remain constant among those participating at its start. Trending will be possible. Trending back up to prior highs, or back down to prior lows.

Bottom line (My underlying premise)
Rosh Hashanah holiday sessions don’t normally trend, so trending is unlikely. Much easier is retracing prior price action. There’s not a lot above to retrace, and plenty below. Meanwhile, if pre-open Jobless Claims doesn’t get the ball rolling in one direction or the other, then the balance of the morning would be unlikely to trend, too.[/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.