Trading Plan for 9/9

If Putin hadn’t voiced his support for Syria… then would the pre-open rally have been rejected so forcibly? The headline certainly accelerated the sell-off, but too quickly for many sellers unable to exploit it. That helped us to expect so much of its retracement, and later all of its recovery, to fail — because the market has a way of giving every a chance… eventually.

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)[pay]
The week avoided ending on a high note — at least, on too high of a note. Recovering all of the morning’s 1661.00-1639.00 plunge expended a lot of energy, and closing above prior highs would have gained traction for the effort. But 1653.50 was being tested at the close.

Not only is 1653.50 back under prior highs, it is also the same point of equilibrium that was tested going into Wednesday’s noon hour. Alternating rallies and declines each returned back to and through 1653.50. Settling there once again makes trending vulnerable to the equilibrium setup. I suspect the weekend’s illiquidity will render the setup’s influence moot, but I am amazed at how many alternating false breaks the setup already produced.

Friday’s close trended downward, and the bias environment contained the afternoon’s high. So, gapping up above the afternoon’s 1664.00 high would trigger a “session-long rally” setup. Like the equilibrium setup, the session-long rally’s parameters may be less influential after a weekend of illiquidity. But, also like the equilibrium setup, we’ll give it a benefit of the doubt if it were triggered.

[/pay]What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)[pay]
There was no Saturday Strategy Session last week due to the holiday, so be sure to join us this weekend at 9:30am ET. On Saturday. Hence the name, “Saturday” Strategy Session.[/pay]

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.