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Up is the new down. – If, Then… Market Timing

Up is the new down.

Stopping optimistically short of the target .

Closing yesterday under 2099.25 put into play a test of 2077.00. There was no particular time frame for meeting it. It was attacked already to within 3 points before the noon hour”s end.

2073.00 is room for noise under the target. It can be tested without suggesting the drop is extending. That would only reflect more selling pressure being expended, more buying pressure being refueled.

A similar buffer above is at 2080.50. Reacting up aggressively from its test would reflect too much optimism at this stage to be a bottom.

No doubt, some degree of today”s selling pressure is a function of the weekend”s fast-approaching illiquidity. That”s pessimism, and it”s the one reason why many trends end upon retesting a Friday”s extreme. But a Friday”s extreme cannot, itself, end the trend.

Bouncing prematurely here could be very productive. The morning”s bias has extended through the noon hour as Fridays often do. RSIs are oversold, but making higher lows. And 2080.50 is being overlapped while probing under it by 5 ticks. Back above 2083.00 would have potential to 2094.00.

If a rally doesn”t try to catch then 2077.00 down to 2073.00 remains in-play. Any lower could double or triple today”s drop, ending down 40 or 60 points and ending the potential for new highs.